A stroll down the annals of presidential years past reveals the Clinton campaign slogan that made it into the history books and provided lots of fodder for the media, "It’s the economy, stupid!" The catchy phrase became the meat of conversation as then candidate Bill Clinton wooed voters into his camp.
Now, with talk of recession, you might think Clinton’s campaign slogan quite appropriate for our current journey toward November. But there’s a deeper more personal message here which might have longer implications than recession – job security.There are three major contributors.
First, while recent job numbers are at odds (ie.The fall in new jobless benefits claims [good] versus the December jump in the unemployment rate to 5%, from 4.7% [not so good]) the Bureau of Labor Statistics just announced that unemployment insurance filings grew 8% in 2007 to 1.6 million versus 1.5 million in 2006. Large-scale layoffs, (50 plus workers at a time) also increased in December 2007 and layoffs that month, in general, were the highest in the U-S since 2005.
Second, the slowing economy and lingering fallout from the sub-prime crunch is already causing consumers (a drippy holiday season) and big business (coming layoffs in the financial arena, ie. Morgan Stanley) to cut back. In fact, according to the Labor Department, the finance industry saw record high layoffs in 2007. And with the nearly wiped out profits reported by some big banks last week, it might be a sign of things to come in the form of further layoffs in the financial sector.
Third, worries that jobs will be lost in increasing numbers to globalization fueled by outsourcing jobs to overseas companies and expanding technology. Take those on-line social networks. They don’t need as many employees to do their work as technological advances eliminate jobs.
Don’t mean to be doom and gloom, but these conditions only exacerbate the concerns of the American worker. Can you say perfect storm?
A recent Fortune Magazine survey on the state of the economy found that one in four of those polled were concerned about losing their jobs. While many economists indicate we are either heading into – or are already experiencing a recession, most are not predicting a dire lengthy recession. But the job market might throw a monkey wrench into the economic frontier as there are many unknowns.
The question is – will President George Bush’s economic stimulus package and a further lowering of interest rates generate more confidence in American corporations, its workers, and the workplace in general? Perception is a huge part of public sentiment, but eventually the numbers catch up with us all. If unemployment and layoffs continue to rise, the recession might not be an easy hump to get over for anyone – especially the chosen one who makes his or her way into the White House.
