The Tumultuous Job Market: The Facts Please!

"It’s clear our economy has slowed," said President Bush in a press briefing Friday afternoon following tsunami-like news that hit the shores of the job market. (In it’s report, the Labor Department revealed the worst decline in 5 years. Employers showed a 63,000 dive in non-farm payrolls.) Shortly after his remarks, his economic advisor lowered the outlook for this quarter. Moments later the DOW Jones Industrials began to tank further into triple-digit territory.

Mr. Bush tried to drum up optimism on the deteriorating economic situation, mentioning the stimulus package and business incentives coming soon from the federal government in May.

"I know this is a difficult time for our economy, but we recognized the problem early and we’ve provided the economy a booster shot,"  said Mr. Bush. But his statements were apparently not enough to stem the tide of uncertainty.

Too little too late? Perception is everything. Did the Bush administration act quick enough? Regardless – the job news is a wave with a huge undercurrent of mixed information. Some of which is clouded by the murky waters of those job numbers. Let’s deconstruct.

First, some of the losses can be attributed to college kids and retail workers departing the job sector due to seasonal employment. Second, the Gen Y and Gen X ers are a bit more independent, inclined to run their own businesses, and are generally more picky about their job choices as they are more interested in more worklife balance and not working the supersonic hours their parents worked. Finally, more and more baby boomers are entering retirement age. This is where the numbers will really start to skew as boomers might opt for career change, more flexible hours in phased retirement or starting their own business.

Nevertheless, we are clearly riding the rapids of a tumultuous river in the job sector. More people might opt to hold onto their jobs, than to jump ship. To stick it out in the workplace there’s not a better way to secure your position than to demonstrate your skill set in your current job, according to Jeri Sedlar, author of Don’t Retire, Rewire. Sedlar is also a Senior Advisor to the Conference Board.

"When there is a demonstrated skill set, when you have the knowledge that your division needs, they will look to retain you," says Sedlar who adds that companies already feeling the pain of a tightening job market due to brain drain, will start to get more creative. It’s more cost efficient to hold onto skilled loyal employees, than to recruit and retrain new ones. Sedlar says even with those job numbers on the decline, certain sectors have incentive to hang onto talent  – especially in health care, technology, education, aerospace, oil and gas.

"There is already brain drain," says Sedlar. "Company heads are realizing that they can’t afford to let talent out the door. At the same time, workers want more flexibility." Sedlar predicts we’ll be seeing some new working models emerge as management devises new ways to hold onto talent. Even if it means keeping employees part-time, rather than see them walk out the door.